Legend | Sources | Services | Team | Special Thanks | Legal
This map shows median local projected sea levels for the year 2100 under different carbon pollution scenarios,
based on peer-reviewed research summarized and linked in this report and this blog, including results for how many
people live on land that could be affected. The projections incorporate findings from a 2016 scientific
study on Antarctic ice sheets. That study pointed toward much greater sea-level rise than previously
anticipated for this century, and also to the potential for much greater sea-level rise avoidance through
cutting climate pollution.
The first pollution scenario shown is “Unchecked pollution,” which would reflect a failure of nations to
meet their Paris Climate Agreement commitments. Technically, this
option corresponds to a scientific scenario called RCP 8.5,
consistent with more than 3°C of warming. The second scenario shown is “Sharp carbon cuts,” which
corresponds to RCP 2.6,
consistent with 1.5°C warming or less.
Under this scenario, annual emissions peak in 2020, decline sharply to reach zero just after 2080,
and become slightly negative after that. Negative emissions would require engineered active removal of
carbon from the atmosphere at a massive scale, likely to be extremely difficult and expensive.
For comparison, the map also shows the same scenarios applied to an older sea level model used in the same
scientific paper, a model that does not incorporate the new Antarctic science. This leads to lower
projections in the high emissions scenario and a thus lower contrast between the high and low scenarios.
Regardless of model or scenario, different places have different projected sea levels due to local
factors such as rising or sinking land. This map shows the appropriate future high tide line in each location
for each model and scenario.
Detailed decade-by-decade local sea level and flood risk projections and downloads are available
in Climate Central’s other tools. For U.S. locations, go
to Risk Finder, type a coastal place,
scroll down to “When Are the Risks?” and click on “Advanced” to the right of the bar chart. Then
choose “Kopp et al. (2017)” for your model, and select a scenario. For global locations,
go to Risk Zone Map, navigate to your chosen
geography, click on “See projections” at the bottom left of the map and
choose a scenario incorporating the new Antarctic findings.
Areas of this map outside the contiguous U.S. and Hawai’i use elevation data on a roughly 90-meter horizontal resolution grid derived from NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). SRTM provides surface elevations, not bare earth elevations, causing it to commonly overestimate elevations, especially in areas with dense and tall buildings or vegetation. Therefore, the map under-portrays areas that could be submerged at each water level, and exposure is greater than shown (Kulp and Strauss, 2016). However, SRTM includes error in both directions, so some areas showing exposure may not be at risk.
Additionally, the vertical resolution of SRTM is one meter, so there is no visual contrast across certain settings in most non-U.S. locations on this map. We will address this problem in the future by transitioning to CoastalDEM™, Climate Central’s new high-accuracy global coastal elevation dataset.
SRTM data do not cover latitudes farther north than 60 degrees or farther south than 56 degrees, meaning that sparsely populated parts of Arctic Circle nations are not mapped here, and may show visual artifacts.
You may embed this map for your own noncommercial use by clicking on the </> icon in the upper right.
Back to top
Legend
Land below the projected sea level, and connected to the ocean at that level, is colored teal blue. Land
below the projected sea level, but isolated or protected from the ocean by ridges, levees, or other
barriers, is colored green.
Below water level
Below but isolated
Levee
Back to top
Sources
Elevation, tidal, levee and basemap data sources are shared with Risk Zone Map.
Back to top
Services
Climate Central offers coastal area flood and sea level risk assessment services in the U.S. and globally, including infrastructure and portfolio analytics, digital tool-building, and other tailored services and consulting for governments, NGOs, businesses and investors. Learn more.
Back to top
Team
The Climate Central sea level rise group conceived
and maintains this tool. Please consider supporting our nonprofit efforts.
Back to top
Special Thanks
To the many organizations that have financially supported Climate Central and its sea level program,
including The Kresge Foundation and The Schmidt Family Foundation.
Back to top
General Disclaimer & Legal Terms
The purpose of our web tools is to provide local regions and policy makers with the tailored local information they need to understand and respond to the risks of sea level rise and coastal flooding. Our web tools are screening/scoping tools that use consistent data sets and analyses at the national level within the U.S., and a different consistent set across all other nations outside the U.S. For information visit Disclaimer | Terms of Use
Help | Contact | Disclaimer | Terms of Use | Privacy
Back to top
